014
Polymarket
Five wallets, one funder, a four-hour head start
Identical positions opened before the announcement. Every funding path traces back to a single dispenser contract.
Open case file→$1.9M
What prediction
markets would rather
never put on record.
An open register of manipulation, insider betting and altered resolutions. Every entry is published with its full evidence chain and the date it was captured.
148
case files open
$412M
volume implicated
31
resolutions disputed
4
venues with a repeat pattern
Selected entries from the volume in progress.
027
Kalshi
The criteria were rewritten after the market closed
Contract wording changed 41 hours into the event. The winning side was voided with no prior notice.
Open case file→3 rev.
041
Multi-venue
Thirty-eight percent of volume moved between sibling accounts
Round-trip pattern at 90-second intervals. Advertised front-page liquidity did not correspond to real demand.
Open case file→38%
052
Polymarket
A dispute committee decided by seven addresses
Voting power concentrated enough to force three consecutive outcomes against public consensus.
Open case file→7
063
Kalshi
Position limits enforced on only one side of the book
Two institutional accounts traded above the published cap across eleven consecutive sessions.
Open case file→11
Every collapse leaves a signature before it falls.
We reconstruct the order book minute by minute and cross it against wallet movements, contract revisions and public statements. The pattern is almost never chance; chance does not coordinate.
- SHA-256 at capture
- On-chain and public book
- Open and permanent
Methodin three acts
§ 01
Capture
Order book, contract text and wallet state are frozen with a timestamp before any of it can be edited.
§ 02
Corroborate
Every claim is tied to a verifiable source: a file hash, an on-chain transaction or a public document.
§ 03
File
The case is published in full, with its rebuttal open. What gets refuted is marked; nothing is deleted.
If you saw something crooked, it's already evidence.
Submissions are received with no origin metadata. No IP addresses and no accounts are logged. What arrives is verified before it ever enters the record.
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